Background Behind the Downward Revision

Global investment bank Citi has sent a warning signal to the market by lowering its 12-month price outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Its previous Bitcoin target of over $140,000 has been revised down to around $110,000, while Ethereum’s forecast has also been adjusted from above $4,000 to the low-$3,000 range. This is not merely a price adjustment—it reflects a broader decline in overall market expectations, making it particularly significant for investors.

The main reason behind this revision is the delay in U.S. cryptocurrency-related legislation. In particular, the much-anticipated “Clarity Act” has failed to pass due to political conflicts, removing what was expected to be a key catalyst for institutional capital inflows.

Market Scenarios: Bullish vs Bearish

Citi presents two possible scenarios for the market going forward. In an optimistic case, Bitcoin could rise as high as $160,000. However, in a recession scenario, it could fall to the $50,000 range. Ethereum is also expected to face significant downside risk if user activity declines.

These projections highlight that the current market is not in a simple bull cycle, but rather in a “conditional uptrend” heavily influenced by macroeconomic variables. In particular, the combined impact of interest rates, economic conditions, and policy decisions is expected to drive increased volatility.

Investor Sentiment and Market Impact

Citi also suggests that Bitcoin is likely to trade sideways around the $70,000 level for the time being. This indicates that while the upward trend remains intact, there is a lack of clear catalysts for further gains.

The market interpretation is that “the bull market is still in place, but its pace may slow.” Institutional investors, in particular, are expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach rather than taking aggressive positions until regulatory clarity improves. This cautious stance could limit short-term upward momentum in the market.