Bitcoin’s Rise and the “Safe-Haven” Narrative

■Bitcoin Turns Bullish Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Amid escalating military tensions in the Middle East, global financial markets have shown signs of instability. However, Bitcoin has moved in the opposite direction, entering an upward trend and capturing the attention of investors. Starting at around $60,000 in early February, Bitcoin climbed to approximately $74,000 by mid-March, recording a recovery of over 20%. This movement is interpreted not merely as a technical rebound, but as a signal that capital is shifting in response to broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

In traditional financial markets, declining stock indices and uncertainty surrounding interest rates have appeared simultaneously. In this environment, some investors have begun to perceive Bitcoin as a “safe-haven asset.” Recently, Bitcoin has shown behavior similar to gold, reacting to geopolitical risks—an indication of a significant structural shift compared to its past market patterns.

■ ETF Inflows and Expanding Institutional Buying

A key driver behind Bitcoin’s rise is the inflow of institutional capital. Recently, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of over $700 million, reversing the outflow trend that had persisted for months. This marks the first such shift in approximately five months, and the market interprets it as a sign that institutional investor sentiment is recovering.

Additionally, corporate accumulation of Bitcoin has become increasingly noticeable. Some companies have added Bitcoin worth trillions of Korean won to their holdings, strengthening their long-term holding strategies. There is also analysis suggesting that institutional investors are absorbing significantly more Bitcoin than is being newly mined. This dynamic effectively reduces available supply, further reinforcing upward pressure on prices.

■ Derivatives Market and Short Liquidations Accelerate the Rally

The recent rally has not been driven solely by spot buying, but also significantly influenced by the derivatives market. Approximately $600 million worth of short positions were liquidated, triggering a “short squeeze” that accelerated the price increase. This occurred as investors who had bet on price declines were forced to close their positions, creating additional buying pressure.

However, experts caution that part of this upward movement may have been exaggerated by leverage-driven trading. With major events such as the Federal Reserve’s FOMC rate decision approaching, market volatility is likely to increase. As a result, whether the current upward trend will continue is expected to depend heavily on macroeconomic factors.